After The Pandemic: The Hope and Promise of A New Roaring Twenties
Alan Parsons, a visionary in his own right, sent around this article to some folks, written by a musician friend of his, illustrating that we just might be entering the new roaring 20’s, 100 years after the first. Read on, it’s fascinating.
The first wave struck in March 1918, with a second devastating wave coming in October; the final wave lasted through the subsequent winter into the spring of 1919. With the global economy already reeling from the ravages of World War I, the Spanish Flu pandemic was a hammer blow. Economists predicted that the world was going to plunge into catastrophic decline. Yet, this did not happen. The Black Death medieval plagues in Europe were followed by the Renaissance. Similarly, the Spanish Flu led to the decade of the Roaring Twenties, the 1920s. Global GDP growth accelerated, and economic progress was particularly strong in the US with its GDP growing by over 40% during the decade. Read on for my take on a not just optimistically plausible, but tangible and probable economic scenario for the decade ahead.
The Roaring Twenties were powered by three major forces. First, consumers were ready to celebrate their deliverance from disease and suffering. Entertainment, art, and music flourished. In fact, the Roaring Twenties era is also known as the Jazz Age with cabaret, jazz, and band music becoming enormously popular. Women got to vote and began to participate more fully in political and social life. Vast parties were thrown and it was time to dress up and be seen. Art Deco was at its peak, and the decorative arts explored entirely new designs and forms. Frumpy Edwardian style was junked for avant-garde dress and manners.
Second, the adoption of new life-altering technologies accelerated. Electricity entered most homes and led to modern lighting and cooling. Automobile usage exploded and millions of cars were soon driving along on newly constructed roads. Telephones came into use and it became possible to reach people conveniently. Modern appliances such as refrigerators and ranges began to be used. Aviation developed rapidly and intercontinental travel within days became possible.
The third major growth driver was construction spending to rebuild the cities, roads, and bridges devastated by World War I. With consumption exploding and new technologies becoming available, a major building boom began. Most of the world’s major cities – such as London, Paris, New York, Shanghai, and Mumbai – took shape during this time. Skyscrapers were developed, boulevards of stylish apartment buildings sprang up, and splendid new hotels were built. The first airports and many grand railway stations were commissioned during the Roaring Twenties.
A century later, once the Covid-19 pandemic begins to fade away, we are likely to see another such decade; the Roaring Twenties of the 21st century. The global economy will likely boom, and the U.S. will see many years of strong growth and rising prosperity. Amid today’s gloomy mood, this is certainly a contrarian perspective. However, as in the Roaring Twenties of the 20th century, this decade too is being powered by some irresistible forces.
Cooped-up consumers are ready to spend. We can already see that in several major industries. The real estate market is thriving, especially in premium locations; the stats below show monumental gains for the Santa Barbara area. Entertainment spending at home is surging as evidenced by the rapid growth in various media streaming services. Even luxury goods companies are seeing higher sales. These trends will only be amplified once people can once again live and spend freely. Consumption of all types will then soar as pent-up demand and desire to live life to the fullest is unleashed.
A second force that is propelling growth is the range of new technologies that are taking off. Electric mobility is growing rapidly, which will bring electric cars, buses, and even motorcycles into mainstream usage. Artificial intelligence (AI) coupled with 5G networks will make augmented and virtual reality commonplace. Cloud computing will result in a range of digital services being available anywhere, anytime for everyone. Work behaviors and learning experiences will be transformed with AI tools enabling access to the best productivity tools.
These new technologies require entirely new infrastructure such as advanced 5G networks, charging stations, intelligent highways, grid-connected battery storage, and massive cloud computing centers. In addition, climate change pressures will force major changes to our residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Our energy networks will have to be transitioned to green technologies to reduce carbon emissions. Similarly, public health gaps very much exposed during the pandemic will necessitate a massive build-up of hospitals, clinics, and ancillary medical facilities.
The world is prepared to finance the Roaring Twenties. Central banks have unleashed a tidal wave of liquidity and reduced borrowing rates to zero. Financing is available to fund a green economy and to boost consumer spending. Every country is looking to find ways to keep their workforces employed, particularly on efforts that allow us to 'build back better'.
The important message we'd like to convey, is that our community, our country and our world will get through the current crisis. Continue supporting your local restaurants via take-out, stay positive, stay busy and count your blessings; these things will allow you to come out of this smelling like a rose.
The technology and culture has evolved dramatically of course, but there are signs that a next generation of a post-pandemic social and technology is coming, similar to the 1920’s but on modern terms
Will FM radio, TV news, live events as they currently exist be part of this, or will this next era become a garden for new programming, new ideas and new visions ? The answer resides with people with new ideas and the patience and moxie to get them in circulation. An entity that is dominant simply needs to stay in sync and grow with the new era. Others on the drawing board have the amazing opportunity to catch up to now and join the rush of innovation that exists and is bubbling under the mainstream radar. In other words, now is the time to pull out the creative steroids to meet the extraordinary opportunities sure to exist in a post Covid world. AFDI. enough talk...time to do.
What ARE those answers? It starts with rewiring our media minds to be in the reimagination mode. Accept the new realities. I think I have some answers, but more importantly, many people do. It’s just high time to unwind the chains of tradition and join the ranks of the technologists, entrepreneurs and artists who ARE changing things with the motivation to make things better rather than living in the comfort of the past. It ain’t easy as the media system isn’t wired for change...but the audiences sure are